Which Industries Are Thriving and Struggling Post-Tariffs? Our Box Vol

Since tariffs were introduced earlier this year, many U.S. industries have been forced to reevaluate their supply chains, packaging costs, and speed to market. At CustomBoxes.io, we’ve crunched the numbers from thousands of recent orders to reveal which industries are growing—and which are shrinking—when it comes to custom shipping boxes and branded packaging.

📉 Several Industries Show Below-Average Growth

While many sectors saw continued investment in packaging, several others trailed behind, including:

Consumer Electronics and Tech Manufacturing
Furniture and Home Furnishings
Transportation Equipment and Automotive Parts
Direct-to-Consumer Health and Personal Care Startups

These businesses may be feeling the ripple effects of tariffs more directly, facing higher material costs, inventory compression, or international sourcing delays that have slowed their packaging investment...and the steepest decline is from...

👕 Apparel Faces Sharpest Decline

Despite strong historical performance, Apparel Manufacturing (NAICS 315) saw a notable decline in Q2. This could reflect sourcing instability or a pause in brand investment.

That said, not all businesses are feeling the pinch, there are some businesses bucking the negative trend overall

🍽️ Food & Beverage Still Rule the Roost

Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) was one of the largest categories in Q2 2025 and experienced a much above-average increase over the same period last year. Crop Production (NAICS 111) was also one of the leading sectors and posted solid increases. These sectors have remained resilient, investing more in reliable, branded shipping as farm-to-door and meal kit trends grow.

☕ Beverage Boom: A Surprise Contender

Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing (NAICS 312) experienced the most dramatic growth among all categories. One client alone ordered a substantial volume in a very short time. From niche coffee brands to canned cocktail startups, this sector is embracing high-quality, branded shipping to build loyalty.

🔧 Specialty Contractors & Niche Manufacturers Climb Quietly

Specialty Trade Contractors (NAICS 238) showed steady order activity, and Leather and Textile Product Manufacturers saw significant increases over prior periods. These sectors may be lower in volume, but their orders suggest a deeper move toward brand elevation.

🌎 Geography Matters: Some States Hit Harder Than Others

In addition to industry type, location is proving to be a major factor in how businesses are responding post-tariffs.

California, long one of our largest markets, experienced one of the steepest slowdowns. From eCommerce hubs to CPG brands, businesses appear to be pausing or downsizing their packaging investments—likely due to rising operational costs and freight surcharges that disproportionately impact the West Coast.
Florida saw a significant contraction as well, particularly among lifestyle and retail brands. Even with its entrepreneurial energy, the state’s packaging demand has cooled, suggesting more cautious inventory and marketing cycles.
Other large states like Illinois, Michigan, and New York also saw below-average activity, especially among physical product sellers and traditional manufacturers.
Meanwhile, states like Colorado and Ohio bucked the trend, showing steady or even modest growth—driven in part by service-based businesses and more balanced logistics costs.

📦 Box Type Trends: Not All Packaging Is Affected Equally

Our internal product classification offers an even deeper view of the market:

Shipping Boxes (used by CPG, Retail, and eCommerce businesses)
Custom Boxes (used by service organizations, nonprofits, real estate, and B2B thank-you gifting)

Both product types grew over the quarter, but here’s the twist:
📉 Shipping Boxes, while still dominant, experienced a decline in their share of overall orders
📈 Custom Boxes increased their share and are steadily gaining ground

What this means:
Even though product-based businesses are still growing, they’re feeling the impact of tariffs. They’re ordering more strategically, seeking smaller box sizes, or reducing spend per shipment.

Meanwhile, service brands are leaning into packaging as an extension of customer experience—using Custom Boxes to drive loyalty, engagement, and differentiation.

🛍️ The Emerging Seller Dilemma

One-third of our customers fall into a group we call Emerging Sellers—those without a formal business domain or email. Often Etsy sellers, local crafters, or side hustlers, these entrepreneurs:

Represent a significant portion of our revenue
But saw much slower growth in recent months

This is the most vulnerable segment post-tariffs. With less insulation from shipping surcharges and material price volatility, many have hit pause.

⚖️ Why We Believe Small Businesses Should Be Exempt from Tariffs

Let's start with saying this overtly: we are definitely Pro Made in USA...even if compananies are buying some products outside the USA today our customers are all based here. I bet if you them all 99% of them would say they'd prefer to buy their goods made here as well. However, we think there needs to be a better plan than the one we have today. Tariffs were designed to incentivize domestic production and protect U.S. industries. But in practice, they’ve disproportionately impacted small businesses—many of whom lack the scale, speed, and supply chain flexibility to adapt the way large corporations can.

At CustomBoxes.io, we believe it's time to rethink the one-size-fits-all tariff approach.

Here’s why small businesses—especially those under $50 million in annual revenue—should be exempt or protected through a tiered structure:

Lack of leverage: Small businesses don’t have the negotiating power to offset cost increases with volume discounts or long-term contracts.
Limited capital and resources: They often operate with thinner margins and leaner teams, making it harder to quickly switch suppliers or redesign packaging.
No domestic alternative (yet): Many industries rely on materials or components that aren’t available domestically in small quantities, especially when larger corporations haven’t yet brought their own manufacturing back onshore.
Local impact vs. global scale: While individually small, these businesses collectively drive innovation, job creation, and community revitalization. Their total import volume is minor compared to global players—yet they face the same penalty.
Slower reaction time: Unlike enterprise brands with full sourcing and compliance teams, small business owners are juggling dozens of roles and can’t always pivot instantly.

A tiered tariff exemption or credit system—based on revenue, number of employees, or domestic sourcing accessibility—would allow small businesses to stay competitive, preserve jobs, and continue investing in growth during a challenging economic cycle.

Until that happens, we’ll keep doing what we do best: helping businesses of all sizes save money, simplify packaging, and build brands they’re proud of.

Now’s the Time to Differentiate—and Keep the Customers You Already Have

As advertising costs continue to rise on Meta and Google, it’s never been more important for small businesses to think smarter—not just spend more. Instead of pouring budget into increasingly expensive and less efficient digital ads, many small businesses are turning to packaging as a performance channel—leveraging the ad space they already pay for: their shipping boxes.

CustomBoxes.io helps businesses take advantage of this overlooked opportunity. By turning plain kraft boxes into simple logo boxes or custom shipping boxes with a logo, you’re not just delivering a product—you’re reinforcing your brand, boosting repeat sales, and creating a moment of surprise and delight with every shipment.

Shop Small Saturday… Every Month

While most brands focus their “support local” messaging around one day a year, we believe shopping small deserves more than a Saturday in November. That’s why CustomBoxes.io promotes Shop Small Saturday every month—with ongoing efforts to spotlight independent makers, creators, and community-based retailers.

As part of this initiative, we’re curating and sharing monthly Gift Guides that feature standout small businesses using CustomBoxes.io. These guides increase discoverability, improve brand awareness, and make it easier for consumers to shop with purpose. A special Holiday Tariff Relief Gift Guide is also in the works, designed to give small businesses an edge in a season where margins are tighter and competition is fierce.

Helping Small Businesses Save, Sell, and Succeed

We're not just making boxes. We're helping businesses:

Cut ad costs by using logo shipping boxes as brand reinforcement
Increase sales by including QR codes on packaging—driving customers to loyalty offers, upsells, and social channels
Stand out from dropshippers and Amazon sellers with custom branding
Save money with cost-effective, scalable alternatives to fully custom packaging

Every logo shipping box is a chance to turn a one-time buyer into a repeat customer. And with tariffs potentially increasing costs even further, now is the time to double down on what you can control—branding, storytelling, and customer loyalty.

💡 Conclusion: Branded Shipping as a Signal of Resilience

Before we conclude we want to add a few notes on the data:Put notes on data (small company with limited resources, changes to companies, small companies more volatile, only 3 months of data, etc).

The businesses thriving in this economy are those investing in packaging as strategy—whether to build brand equity, reduce shipping costs, or retain customers. The businesses leveraging their packaging to retain the customers they do have are doing the best.

👉 Explore box options for your industry

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📰 Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Title:
CustomBoxes.io Data Reveals Post-Tariff Industry Growth Trends in Custom Packaging

Atlanta, GA – July 3, 2025 — CustomBoxes.io, a leader in sustainable custom shipping boxes for small and mid-sized businesses, today released findings from a multi-month industry analysis, highlighting key sectors investing in branded packaging in the wake of recent U.S. tariffs.

Based on customer order data across North America, the analysis reveals that:

Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) was the top-performing sector post-tariff, with a significant increase in custom box orders year-over-year.
Beverage & Tobacco Manufacturing (NAICS 312) saw the highest growth rate, signaling rising consumer demand and direct-to-consumer adoption in that vertical.
Crop Production, Animal Aquaculture, and Specialty Trade Contractors also saw above-average growth in branded packaging spend.

“These insights validate that resilient industries are doubling down on customer experience and operational efficiency,” said Derick Jaros, Founder of CustomBoxes.io. “Our low-cost, high-impact packaging helps brands weather supply chain complexity while standing out.”

📈 Other Key Findings:

Leather & Textile Manufacturers experienced unexpected surges—driven by artisan, small-batch, and niche eCommerce producers.
Apparel Manufacturing declined sharply, reflecting sourcing challenges and discretionary budget cuts.
Industries with the highest spend per business included Crop Production and Apparel—demonstrating strong lifetime value even in lower-volume categories.

🌍 Geography Reveals Uneven Recovery

CustomBoxes.io's data also uncovered regional disparities in how businesses are responding post-tariff:

California and Florida, two of the largest state economies, saw significant pullbacks in packaging demand. In California, product-based businesses appeared to be heavily impacted by rising freight and material costs, while Florida brands showed greater hesitancy in reordering due to demand volatility.
Other populous states such as Illinois, Michigan, and New York also posted below-average performance—especially in traditional manufacturing and consumer goods sectors.
In contrast, states like Colorado and Ohio demonstrated steady or above-average growth, bolstered by a mix of service-based businesses and more cost-stable fulfillment conditions.

💼 Policy Perspective: Supporting Small Businesses Post-Tariff

CustomBoxes.io has observed that small businesses are disproportionately affected by tariffs. The company believes a tiered exemption or relief system is worth exploring for the following reasons:

Small businesses have limited resources to pivot sourcing or redesign packaging
Many lack the infrastructure to bring production in-house or source domestically
They operate on lower margins and often without access to freight discounts or supplier leverage
Their collective import volume is minor, but the impact on day-to-day operations is significant

“We believe businesses under $50 million in annual revenue should be exempt from certain tariffs—or supported through policy incentives that recognize their agility and constraints,” added Jaros. “They’re the foundation of local economies, but they can’t carry the same burden as billion-dollar enterprises.”

About CustomBoxes.io
CustomBoxes.io is revolutionizing how small businesses think about branded shipping. With DIY simplicity, cost-saving shipping optimization, and a commitment to sustainability, the platform empowers entrepreneurs to stand out in every delivery.

Which Industries Are Thriving and Struggling Post-Tariffs? Our Box Volume Data Tells Part Of the Story